A mere eight weeks in the past that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season have Villa had an xG notably superior than the other team. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival they have to face in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
