Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
